影响因子：4.3
DOI码：10.1016/j.epsr.2023.109464
所属单位：哈尔滨工程大学船舶工程学院
发表刊物：Electric Power Systems Research
刊物所在地：瑞士
关键字：Weekend electric load forecast; Phase space reconstruction; Weighted first-order local forecast method; Energy economy
摘要：To forecast accurately the electric load of a city at the weekend, aiming at the problems of nonlinearity and model interpretability in power behavior, a local constant first-order weighted forecasting model is developed. First of all, the values of the electric load are reconstructed in phase space, stability analysis can effectively describe the operation mechanism and law of weekend power. Then, the weights of neighbors are used in the first-order local forecasting model, and the nearest neighbors are used in grid optimization. The forecasted values are then separated to be the phase forecasting points in terms of the spatial dimension of the electric loads and the lags of the time delay obtained in the training stage. Numerical experimental results of samples at different scales show the following: (1)The forecasting performance of the proposed model is better than other models in the forecasting errors in this work (among three types of measurements: root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and mean absolute error (MAE)); (2) the significance test (KSPA) also confirmed the universality and consistency of the method, and the effective diagnosis and statistical analysis of the weekend power mechanism are helpful to promote weekend power management and commercial design.
合写作者：彭丽玲,Hsin-Pou Huang
第一作者：范国峰
论文类型：期刊论文
通讯作者：洪维强
论文编号：109464
学科门类：工学
文献类型：J
卷号：221
ISSN号：0378-7796
是否译文：否
发表时间：2023-01-01
收录刊物：SCI
发布期刊链接：https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S037877962300353X?via%3Dihub